March Review


Not much to write about for March in regards of quantity of games with only the two games.


Do we say that March was the month with not a win or do we say we were undefeated in March ? 😊


Just the 2 games and 2 draws.


Player of the Month for March would have to be Elyounoussi with our only goal, the most shots (with 11) and he also had 4 key passes.


For season so far;

- Edouard is top with 20 goals (all games)

- Christie is top with 10 assists (all games)

- Edouard has 90 shots at goal (league games only)

- Turnbull has 74 key passes (league games only)


With the lack of any good detail to review for March I've also done some season graphs for NP xG and NP xGA per game average on a six game rolling basis.

The above chart is for NP xG and you can see our worst two spells were;

- the six games from St Mirren (A) on 16th September to Aberdeen (A) on 25th October. That's when we were playing 3-5-2 and having a different forward pairing every game. Five games at 352 and one at 4231.

- the six games post Dubai. Enough said.

- both those spells produced a six game average of 1.33 NP xG per game

However even after the Hibs and two Livingston games the following six games weren't much better and produced our third lowest spell of NP xG at 1.43.


The spells we did the best in chance creation (NP xG) were;

- from Motherwell (A) on 8th November to Hamilton (A) on Boxing Day as our NP xG was averaging 2.32. These six games saw us play three different formations (three games at 4231, one game at 352 and two games at 442D).

- the first six games of the season. In these six games we played 4231 four times and 352 twice. Our NP xG per game average for these six games was 2.17



In regards to NP xGA and chances being created against us the above chart again is based on a six game rolling average. However this time the higher up in the graph the worse for us.


Our two worst spells were;

- the six games from playing Hibernian at home on 27th September and Hibernian away on 21st November. Three games at 352 and three at 4231 and our NP xGA being 1.29

- again the six games post Dubai. NP xGA was 1.04


Our two best spells were;

- from the 2nd game of the season (similar to our chance creation best spell) with a NP xGA of only 0.52

- from the St Johnstone game at home on 6th December to the Rangers game on 2nd January. We tightened up our defence after our Champions League escapades of conceding four goals per game. NP xGA average was 0.56



In regards to NP xG differential between chances created and chances conceded the above graph illustrates the gaps (again in a six game rolling average).


- We started the season in the first six games with a NP xG differential average of 1.58. Starting the season well.

- Then this declined just before and then following the first Rangers game to our worst six game average versus Hibernian in November at only 0.32 difference in NP xG and NP xGA.

- We then improved largely thanks to four games with the 442D culminating in another six game average of 1.58 up to and including the Rangers game in January.

- The post Dubai six games then gave us our worst of the season at 0.29.


Overall our season so far has produced an average NP xG of 1.78, NP xGA of 0.87 and therefore a differential of 0.91.


With our six game average for NP xG ranging between 1.33 and 2.32 and our six game average for NP xGA ranging between 0.52 and 1.29.


For comparison Rangers NP xG this season is 1.92 (0.14 better than ours), their NP xGA is 0.63 (0.24 better than ours) and therefore a differential of 1.29 (0.38 better than ours).


However using the last six games;

- We have an NP xG of 1.65 which is 0.16 better than Rangers six game average of 1.49

- We have an NP xGA of 0.91 which is 0.10 worse than Rangers six game average of 0.81. (Although at least that is an improvement from being 0.24 worse off than Rangers season to date).

- Therefore for the last six games we have an NP xG differential of 0.74 which is 0.06 better than Rangers 0.68 six game average differential.



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Tony@CelticTrends.com


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