Updated: Apr 26
Looking at the results from the first 33 match rounds of the season and splitting them into Home and Away teams it was interesting to see the top performers on xPts (expected Points). xPts generated from xG and xGA and created by the guys at @CynicAnalysis.
Celtic topping the table at Home and 3rd in the table for Away results. Rangers have been a bit unlucky at home as their expected points have been 2.57 per game but their actual has been 2.35 but away from home has been the other way with 0.17 more than expected.
Aberdeen at Home were 5th best (out of 24) and the best team outwith Celtic and Rangers on expected points at Home.
The unluckiest teams being Aberdeen Away and Hibs Away. With Aberdeen on 0.65 points per game versus 1.16 expected points per game and a -0.51 variance and Hibs on 0.88 points per game versus 1.3 expected points per game and a -0.43 variance. Luckiest is Motherwell at Home with a +0.42 variance.
As an average for the league teams perform 22% worse away from home averaging 1.21 points per game away and 1.57 points per game at home.
Aberdeen had the biggest variance at 39% worse away from home with Livingston having the 2nd biggest variance at 36% worse. St Mirren only dropped 6% in performance away from home but their home form wasn't great in the first place. Dundee Utd were next in regards to least variance at 9% decline away from home.
Celtic dropped 21% away from home and Rangers dropped 19%.
Post split games (based on xPts avg) ranked by closest first are;
- Hearts (1.86 xPts at home) versus Rangers (2.08 xPts away from home) +0.22 of a positive variance for Rangers
- Celtic (2.76 xPts) versus Rangers (2.08 xPts). Variance +0.68
- Ross County (1.41 xPts) versus Celtic (2.19 xPts). Variance +0.78
- Motherwell (1.23 xPts) versus Rangers (2.08 xPts). Variance +0.85
- Dundee Utd (1.12 xPts) versus Celtic (2.19 xPts). Variance +1.07
- Celtic (2.76 xPts) versus Hearts (1.24 xPts). Variance +1.52
- Rangers (2.57 xPts) versus Dundee Utd (1.02 xPts). Variance +1.55
- Rangers (2.57 xPts) versus Ross County (1 xPts). Variance +1.57
- Celtic (2.76 xPts) versus Motherwell (1.09 xPts). Variance +1.67
+4.19 of a difference for Rangers and +5.14 of a difference for Celtic for the 2 home/2 away fixtures (not including the derby) so Rangers games are closer.
Add in the derby it's Celtic +5.82 and Rangers +3.51.
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