Probabilities for the match are Celtic 82%, Aberdeen 5% and 13% for the draw.
Against Motherwell on 4th February Aberdeen lined up with the following team;
19 Jay Gorter
18 Matthew Pollock, 27 Angus MacDonald and 4 Liam Scales
33 Matthew Kennedy, 16 Ylber Ramadani, 20 Leighton Clarkson, 6 Graeme Shinnie and 17 Johnny Hayes
11 Duk and 9 Bojan Miovski
With Gorter, Pollock, MacDonald and Shinnie all joining in January.
Scales will be ineligible for this game due to Celtic being his parent club.
Despite Aberdeen’s poor start to the season they are 7th in the league only 3pts off 4th place and they are 5th in the xPts table.
For chances created they are doing ok as they are 4th in the league for xG but it is chances conceded that is letting them down as they are 12th in the league for xGA.
Last season Lewis was 2nd worst in the league for goals prevented as he conceded 8.3 more than expected and this season Kelle Roos had made a difference earlier in the season. It can’t be a total surprise that Aberdeen’s form took a dip when Lewis came back into the team recently.
Aberdeen are slow starters in games with only 8% of their goals coming in the first 15 minutes of games and that’s the 2nd lowest in the league for that time period with the league average being 14%. The highest for Aberdeen is 60 to 75 minutes where 26% of their goals are scored and that’s the highest in the league with the league average at 16%.
For goals conceded they are 21% of them being conceded between 30 and 45 minutes and 26% of them between 75 and 90 minutes. Maybe concentration slacking coming to the end of the halfs.
Their high turnovers for the season are 124 (from theanalyst.com) and that’s the lowest of any team in the league. Will they sit deep again?
26.5% of Aberdeen’s attacks are down the central third of the pitch and that’s the highest % of any team in the league.
Outside of Celtic and Rangers players Duk is the 2nd best player in the league for Non Penalty goals per 90 at 0.49. His NP xG per 90 is 0.32. Miovski’s NP xG per 90 is slightly better at 0.35 but his Non Penalty goals per 90 is 0.34.
Only counting players with more than 450 minutes (IE over 20% of available league minutes played) Johnny Hayes is 4th in the league for xA per 90 at 0.3 while his actual assists per 90 are 0.45. Abada, Jota, Haksabanovic being the three players in front of him for xA per 90.
My predictions are for Matt O’Riley to score first at 12/1 and also to score 2 or more goals at 40/1. Sponsored by YnoT Business Solutions
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