Probabilities for the match are Celtic 86%, Livingston 3% and 11% for the draw.
In Livingston’s last league game (home to Hearts) they lined up with the following (in a 4-3-3 formation);
1 Shamal George
2 Nicky Devlin, 5 Jack Fitzwater, 15 Morgan Boyes and 29 James Penrice
33 Stephane Omeonga, 8 Scott Pittman and 24 Sean Kelly
16 Steven Bradley, 9 Bruce Anderson and 17 Stephen Kelly
Against Celtic in December the changes from the above were that they played in a 5-4-1 formation with the following line up;
31 Ivan Konovalov
2 Nicky Devlin, 5 Jack Fitzwater, 6 Ayo Obileye, 3 Jackson Longridge and 11 Christian Montano
17 Stephen Kelly, 33 Stephane Omeonga, 24 Sean Kelly and 29 James Penrice
9 Bruce Anderson
Obileye in the centre of defence to make a back five, Longridge playing at left centre back and Montano at left back. Left back Penrice pushed forward to the midfield and 17 Stephen Kelly playing in the midfield rather than up front.
In that last game between Celtic and Livingston (which was also at Celtic Park) Celtic had 1.96 xG to Livingston’s 0.28 giving Celtic 2.41 expected points and Livingston 0.31.
Top contributors in that match for Celtic were Kyogo with 0.67 xG, Abada with 0.71 xA and Taylor with 0.46 xA. Livingston’s top for xG was Nicky Devlin on 0.19.
Livingston’s best spell for performance (xPts) came in a 8 game run from the start of September (versus Hearts) to the start of November (versus Kilmarnock) where they had at least 1.73 expected points in each of the games against Hearts, Kilmarnock, St Mirren, Ross County, St Johnstone and Kilmarnock again. The 2 games versus Celtic and Rangers were the only games under 1.73 expected points in that 8 game run.
Celtic's xPts trend is impressive reading with 13 of the 23 games having over 2.5 expected points and only 3 games less than 2 expected points. The defeat to St Mirren, the draw to Rangers and the win 4-3 win against Hearts at Tynecastle.
In regards to players for the season in the league (all players) Fitzwater is 9th for blocks and 7th for clearances. Omeonga is 15th in the league for most fouls committed on 2.1 per 90 but he’s also 3rd in the league for most successful tackles per 90 at 1.9 (with a 55.1% success rate). Montano is top of the league for interceptions at 2.6 per 90 and he’s also Livingston’s top rated player at an average of 7.18.
Sean Kelly is the best for xA at 0.11 per 90 (49th in the league) while Anderson is the best for xG per 90 on 0.25 per 90 (28th in the league). For actual figures Sean Kelly is on 0.1 assists per 90 and Anderson is on 0.43 goals per 90. Anderson is also 3rd in the league for possession won in the final 3rd at 1.4 per 90.
Shamal George is the best rated keeper in the league for both goals prevented (at 1.9 less than expected) and save percentage (at 70.3%).
Livingston are 4th in the league table but are 8th in the expected points table. They are 7th for xG created and 9th best for xG conceded.
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Tony@CelticTrends.com