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Celtic v Motherwell (Match Preview)


Probabilities for the match are Celtic 86%, Motherwell 4% and 10% for the draw.


Motherwell played 4 at the back this season under Stevie Hammell but they then changed to 3 at the back under Stuart Kettlewell.


Motherwell v Dundee Utd

In their last game (at home to Dundee Utd) they played a 3-4-1-2 and lined up with the following;

  • 1 Liam Kelly

  • 16 Paul McGinn, 66 Calum Butcher and 52 Dan Casey

  • 22 Max Johnston, 27 Sean Goss, 18 Dean Cornelius and 24 James Furlong

  • 7 Blair Spittal

  • 9 Kevin van Veen and 21 Mikael Mandron


Kelly, Cornelius, Goss, Spittal and van Veen the only survivors from the last 3 starting 11’s for Motherwell v Celtic this season.


Harry Paton, Jack Aitchison and Stuart McKinstry came on as subs. Aston Oxborough, Stephen O’Donnell, Ricki Lamie, Bevis Mugabi, Shane Blaney and Callum Slattery were unused subs.


Jake Carroll, Jonathan Obika, Joseph Efford, Nathan McGinley and Ross Tierney were all out injured.


Kettlewell’s record is 5 wins from 8 games with 1 draw and 2 defeats. That’s a good record especially considering 1 of the defeats was against Rangers however their last result was their worst (a loss at home to Dundee Utd). Hammell only won 7 of his 31 games before Kettlewell was appointed. There were 19 defeats in those 31 games.


Despite losing 2-1 to Dundee Utd last weekend Motherwell did have 2.32 xG versus Dundee Utd’s 1.53 and Dundee Utd’s included 0.79 for their penalty.


Celtic v Motherwell

In the corresponding fixture in October it was 2.97 xPts for Celtic and an xG of 3.39 and xGA of 0.28. Kyogo having an incredible 2.25 xG in the match with Abada having the highest xA at 0.54


Motherwell v Celtic (Cup)

Also in October was a League Cup tie and the xG in that game was 4.82 for Celtic and 0.15 for Motherwell. Abada had the most xG at 1.86 while Taylor had the most xA at 0.86.


Motherwell v Celtic

In the reverse league fixture in November Maeda had the most xG at 0.3 and O’Riley had the most xA at 0.69. Celtic’s total xG that day was 1.43 with Motherwell’s at 0.47.


Motherwell players

Expected line up

  • Kelly is 7th in the league for goals prevented at minus 4.6

  • McGinn hasn’t scored in his 36 appearances for Motherwell

  • Butcher has only 9 appearances for Motherwell

  • Casey also has only 9 appearances for Motherwell

  • 19 year old Johnston has scored 2 from 1.71 xG

  • Goss has the most accurate passes per 90 in the team at 34.9

  • Cornelius had the best passing accuracy (88%) in their last game

  • 20 year old Furlong is on loan from Brighton

  • Spittal is best in the team and 23rd in the league for xA per 90 at 0.17

  • van Veen is 6th in the SPFL for xG per 90 at 0.55 (that includes 0.21 for penalties)

  • Mandron has only scored 19 in his last 103 appearances.


Prediction

My prediction for this game is a Kyogo hat-trick and Celtic to win 7-0.



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