Probabilities for the match are Celtic 51%, Rangers 23% and 26% for the draw.
Below is a possession graph for each 5 minute period from the February match and I’ve picked this game because the pre match feeling is that the February game could very well be replicated in this encounter.
Celtic started off very strongly with over 75% possession in the first 10 minutes and this set the tone for the rest of the first half. The second half possession belonged to Rangers however it was all at Celtic’s control. Celtic have been good at seeing out games since Ange came in as only once have Celtic conceded a goal in the last 15 minutes and that was versus Hearts away in July 2021. Hart and Carter-Vickers weren’t playing in that game.
Average player positions in the game are below.
For the 4 derby games last season;
- The xPts totals were 6.5 for Celtic and 4.9 for Rangers
- The xG totals were 6.04 Celtic and 4.43 for Rangers with Ranges only having more xG on one game (the 1-1 draw at Celtic Park in May)
- 54% of Celtic’s xG came in the first half
- 37% of Ranger’s xG came in the first half
- Celtic’s Post Shot xG was 87% of their xG
- Ranger’s Post Shot xG was 62% of their xG
- 1.18 of Celtic’s xG came from set plays
- 0.94 of Ranger’s xG came from set plays
- Possession for Celtic was 66% in the game they lost, 51% in the game they drew, 45% in the February 3-0 game and 39% in the 2-1 win at Ibrox
- 35% of the game was played in Celtic’s defensive third in the 2-1 Ibrox game, 33% of the game in Rangers’ defensive third in the 3-0 game, 30% in Rangers’ defensive third in the May draw and 29% was played in Celtic’s defensive third in the defeat early in the season.
- In the Ibrox win 35% of Celtic’s passes came from the midfield, that was 29% in the 3-0 game, 27% in the drawn game and 26% in the Ibrox defeat. Celtic’s worst results last season (in all games) came when the midfield three had the lower % of the team’s passes.
So far this season;
- Celtic have 13.3 xPts and Rangers have 11.8
- Celtic have 14.2 xG and Rangers have 10.0
- Celtic have 1.66 xGA and Rangers have 2.52
- Meaning Celtic have 12.53 xGD and Rangers have 7.45
- Also it is worth noting that Celtic have had 3 away games and Rangers 2 and also Celtic have faced Hearts and Aberdeen two teams that should complete the league’s top four come the end of the season.
My predicted team line ups are below and included are each players xG/xA totals for the season so far;
- McLaughlin
- Tavernier 1.58/1.4, Goldson 0.5/0.4, Sands 0.14/0.1 and Barisic 0.2/1.1
- Lundstram 0.5/0.5 and Kamara 0.01/0.1
- Lawrence 1.2/0.6, Tillman 1.2/0.45 and Kent 0.4/0.9
- Colak 2.3/0.58
- Hart
- Juranovic 0.2/1.5, Carter-Vickers 0.5/0,1, Starfelt 0.9/0.0 and Taylor 0.1/0.6
- O’Riley 1.5/2.7, McGregor 0.4/0.7 and Hatate 0.9/0.9
- Jota 1.5/2.9, Kyogo 3.8/0.3 and Maeda 0.3/1.0
Remember remember Celtic beat Rangers in September.
Four previous meetings in September have seen Celtic win 2-0 (Ibrox 2019), 1-0 (Celtic Park 2018), 2-0 (Ibrox 2017) and 5-1 (Celtic Park 2016). There were no games against Rangers in September 2020 or September 2021.
A couple of bets I have picked out are;
- Hatate to have over 3 shots 10/3. He is averaging 4.47 shots per 90.
- O’Riley to have over 1 shot on target 4/1. He is averaging 1.6 shots on target per 90.
- Lundstram to get a yellow card 2/1.
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