Celtic v Rangers (Match Preview)
Match Preview produced for 20MinuteTims https://www.patreon.com/20MinuteTims/posts
Probabilities for the match are Celtic 43%, Rangers 31% and 26% for the draw.
In the history of the Glasgow Derby Rangers have only won once in 90 minutes when Celtic have had more than 700 fans in attendance.
This season Celtic have been winning in games 60% of the time whilst they have been losing only 6%. Rangers have been losing 20% of the time and that’s closer to Aberdeen’s 25% than Celtic’s 6%.
18% of Celtic’s goals have come in the first 15 minutes while 12% of Rangers goals have come in this period. Celtic’s lowest spell is 60-75 minutes with 12%.
Also only 13% of Celtic’s conceded goals come in the first 15 minutes compared to Rangers 24%. Therefore Rangers will be hoping for a boring non eventful first 15 minutes to keep themselves in the game.
The average positions of the players over the last 3 league games are below.
For the 33 league games Celtic accurate passes per match is 582 while for Rangers it is 514 (12% less). Celtic’s passing accuracy is 87% versus 86% for Rangers.
Final Third passes is 271 for Celtic and 239 for Rangers.
Average split of attacks;
Celtic - 40% left, 35% right and 25% central
Rangers - 35% left, 39% right and 26% central
Most passes received in the previous games this season;
September – Sands 66 (17 from Barisic) and Jota 40 (11 from Taylor)
January – Kamara 35 (8 from Kent & 8 from Lundstram) and 55 Starfelt (20 from Carter-Vickers)
February – Tavernier 40 (10 from Goldson) and Taylor 58 (25 from Starfelt)
April – Tavernier 38 (17 from Souttar) and Carter-Vickers 54 (24 from Starfelt)
Rangers likely line up;
Allan McGregor has conceded 7 goals more than expected this season which is 11th in the league. At 58.6% his save percentage is 12th in the league.
James Tavernier is well down on his 0.35 assists and 0.33 expected assists (xA) per 90 from last season with 0.14 assists and 0.22 xA per 90 this season.
John Souttar has 63.16% defensive duels success rate which is the lowest of any defender expected to play in this match
Ben Davies is 5th in the league and best of any Celtic or Rangers player for % of defensive duels won at 77.01% for the season so far.
Borna Barisic is doing better than Tavernier this year with 0.3 assists and 0.24 xA per 90. This is up on his last year’s figures of 0.13 and 0.23 xA.
John Lundstram is 3rd in the league (after Starfelt and Carter-Vickers) for accurate passes per 90 with 75.2
Nicolas Raskin is averaging 56.07 passes per 90. (For comparison Iwata’s is 82 and McGregor’s is 72).
Todd Cantwell only has an xA of 0.2 per 90 so far. (Haksabanovic’s is 0.45).
Malik Tillman is 4th in SPFL for possession won in the final 3rd at 1.1 per 90
Alfredo Morelos has an xG of 0.63 per 90 which is less than Forrest’s 0.64
Fashion Sakala has SPFL’s most successful dribbles per 90 at 2.7 (Jota is 9th with 1.9).
52% of Celtic's xG this season has come from 4 players - Kyogo 23%, Abada 10%, Jota 10% & Giakoumakis 9%
49% of Celtic's xA this season has come from 5 players - O'Riley 13%, Jota 12%, Abada 10%, Hatate 7% & Mooy 7%
My predicted Celtic line up is;
Johnston, Carter-Vickers, Starfelt and Taylor
O’Riley, McGregor and Hatate
Jota, Kyogo and Maeda
I’m guessing that Hatate and Jota are fit and ready. A bit unfair on Iwata who has been brilliant but Hatate is the main man.
I would then expect Iwata, Mooy, Abada (if fit), Oh and Turnbull to make an appearance as subs. Or possibly Haksabanovic instead of Turnbull.
My prediction for this game is 3-0 to Celtic with Kyogo scoring 2 and Jota scoring 1.
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