Probabilities for the match are Celtic 84%, St Mirren 4% and 12% for the draw.
Celtic’s last 3 games against St Mirren have seen Celtic leading in just 35 of the 270 minutes. That’s the lowest Celtic have been leading against any Scottish team in the last 3 games against them.
Celtic’s combined xG for the 3 games is 4.43 and that is the second lowest against any Scottish teams for the last 3 games. The lowest being Rangers where Celtic have a combined xG of 3.92.
However if you measured just on the last 2 games then St Mirren would be the lowest at 2.79 xG for Celtic over those 2 games.
September 2022 – St Mirren 2 – Celtic 0
xG 0.8 – 1.3
March 2022 – Celtic 2 – St Mirren 0
xG 1.49 – 0.74
Celtic leading for only 35 minutes
December 2021 – St Mirren 0 – Celtic 0
xG 0.56 – 1.64
Last 3 games combined
xG Celtic 4.43 – St Mirren 2.1
Minutes leading by Celtic 35 minutes
The previous game before those 3 was in August 2021 and this saw Celtic run out 6-0 winners with an xG of 6.35 but St Mirren were down to 10 men for 71 minutes.
In the last game in September St Mirren lined up with;
1 Trevor Carson
23 Ryan Strain, 22 Marcus Fraser, 31 Declan Gallagher, 18 Charles Dunne and 3 Scott Tanser
17 Keanu Baccus, 16 Ethan Erhahon and 6 Mark O’Hara
7 Jonah Ayunga and 10 Curtis Main
In the game in September Strain had the most passes for St Mirren at 24 and striker Main had the most passes received at 16 with 4 coming from the keeper Carson. Carson had 34 long balls in that game.
St Mirren had only 4 shots at goal the whole match but they were at 0.2 xG per shot which is the 3rd highest of any team this season.
The match shop map is below;
Season to date in the league Alex Greive is 11th and Jonah Ayunga is 12th for xG with 0.49 and 0.44 per 90. For goals scored per 90 Greive has 0.53 and Ayunga 0.22.
For xA Brophy is 5th in the league (only behind Haksabanovic, Abada, Jota and O’Riley) with 0.31 per 90.
Below is the xPts for each St Mirren game this season.
For St Mirren’s game against Hearts at Tynecastle on Friday St Mirren lined up with the following;
1 Trevor Carson
31 Declan Gallagher, 4 Joe Shaughnessy and 5 Richard Taylor
8 Ryan Flynn, 17 Keanu Baccus, 13 Alex Gogic, 6 Mark O’Hara and 3 Scott Tanser
10 Curtis Main and 21 Alex Greive
6 changes from the team that faced Celtic in September.
For Celtic I’m predicting the same line up as Saturday although it could be a game for O’Riley to come back in or even Haksabanovic in that No.10 role. Who would drop out for them? Mooy or Hatate and maybe a rest for Hatate.
For scoreline I’m going for 2-0 for the third game in a row with goals from Jota and Mooy.
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