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Champions League Draw - Good or Bad ?

So was the draw good or bad ?

There is two views you could take when assessing the draw.

The first is the overall rating of the 3 teams we have been drawn with and the second is really drilling it down to opportunities in a realist mindset. In that mindset it is really looking at an ideal of getting one weaker team in the group so that Celtic can achieve 3rd place.

I've used ELO rankings to rank the 32 teams in the group stages and I've also used bookmaker rankings as well. Odds/probabilities are included too. (However please note these probabilities are different to what they would have been before the draw as they take into account how difficult each draw is.

Celtic have an overall ELO ranking of 96 which means they are ranked 30 out of the 32 teams in the group states. Shakhtar Donetsk and Crvena Zvezda are lower on a ELO ranking of 117 and 122.

Looking at the groups overall the bottom 4 Pot 1 teams are ranked lower than all of the Pot 2 teams and the top team in Pots 3 and 4.

Celtic were drawn against Feyenoord from Pot 1 and they are ranked 21st out of all 32 teams and 2nd bottom of the Pot 1 teams. Only Sevilla were lower. So you would say that was a good team to get as they are ranked out with the top 20 of 32 teams.

Atletico Madrid are ranked 10th of the group teams and midway in the Pot 2 teams. It was good to avoid Real Madrid but even the bottom team (RB Leipzig) would have been difficult as there is not much of a gap between the teams in Pot 2.

From Pot 3 the team to avoid were Milan who are ranked 11th and it would have been nice for Celtic to have got either of the two teams ranked lower than them, especially a Shakhtar Donetsk team minus Mudryk. Lazio are ranked 20th and 3rd of the Pot 3 teams.

So you could argue that the draw is good for Celtic but then again you could say that the lowest ranked team Celtic face (Feyenoord ranked 20th) is better than many other lower ranked teams. There were 6 teams ranked lower than Feyenoord that Celtic could have got.

In regards to last season's performances of the teams Celtic have drawn;

  • Atletico Madrid won only 1 of their Champions League group matches. Atletico were 3rd in La Liga 1pt behind Real Madrid and 11pts behind Barcelona.

  • Lazio won only 1 of their Europa League group matches and were knocked out of the Conference League in the knockout rounds by AZ Alkmaar. Lazio were 2nd in Serie A 16 points behind Napoli.

  • Feyenoord got to the quarter finals of the Europa League last season and were in a group with Lazio beating them once and losing to them once. Feyenoord won the Eredivisie by 7 points to PSV.

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