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Hibernian v Celtic (Match Preview)



Probabilities for the match are Celtic at 70%, Hibernian 11% and 19% for the draw.


Below is Hibernian xPts trend for the season so far with the chart coloured coded to reflect the result of the game. IE Red was a defeat, amber a draw and green a win.



Their form on a downward trajectory.


Hibernian are 7th in the league and are 3rd in the xPts league table. They have the 5th most xG and have conceded the 3rd least xG behind only Rangers and Celtic.


@lewis_murray_23 highlighted some interesting stats on their performances when their opponents have had 11 men versus when they had less than 11 men. It varies from 2.67 pts per game to 0.58 pts per game so if Celtic keep 11 men on the pitch they are basically up against the worst team in the league.


Hibernian play with 4 at the back in a 4-2-3 formation and they lined up in their last game against Livingston on Saturday with the following;

  • 1 David Marshall

  • 12 Chris Cadden, 33 Rocky Bushiri, 4 Paul Hanlon and 16 Lewis Stevenson

  • 5 Ryan Porteous and 11 Joe Newell

  • 7 Kyle Magennis, 32 Josh Campbell and 23 Thody Elie Youan

  • 15 Kevin Nisbet

Marijan Cabraja (left back), Ewan Henderson (midfielder), William Fish (midfielder), Elias Melkersen (forward) and Harry McKirdy (forward) all came on as subs.


Against Celtic in October Hibernian played the following team;

with Porteous in defence instead of midfield and 6 Nohan Kenneh in the defensive midfield role. 77 Martin Boyle and 22 McKirdy were the wingers that day and 99 Mykola Kukharevych was up front.


Other players Hibernian have used since that game in October have been Aiden McGeady, Demetri Mitchell and Jair Tavares.


Boyle has the most xG for Hibs at 3.4 (16th in the league) and has scored 5 goals with Kukharevych in 18th with 3.2 xG (and 3 goals). Boyle’s Post Shot xG is 3.8 (112%) while Kukharevych’s is 2.6 (81%).


Kukarevych having the better xG per 90 at 0.39 (15th in the league).


Newell has the most xA per 90 at 0.17 (30th in the league).


Porteous has the most accurate long balls per 90 at 7.3 out of all the players in the league and Hanlon is 10th on 4.5. Porteous also has the most yellow cards in the league on 7.


McKirdy and Kukharevych are 2nd and 6th for fouls committed on 3.6 and 2.8 per 90 respectively.


David Marshall is 7th for goals prevented as he has conceded 3.2 more goals than expected and his save percentage is 12th at 56%.


Player radar below is on Newell which highlights his strengths (Progressive runs) and his weaknesses (Interceptions).

Hibernian’s PPDA for this years is 8.53 which is the 2nd lowest just behind Celtic (8.25) and ahead of Rangers (9.59).


Celtic Trends 🍀📈⚽️

www.CelticTrends.com

https://twitter.com/Tony_McLaughlin

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Tony@CelticTrends.com

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