Hibernian v Celtic (Preview)
Last game of the season which is a dead rubber fixture for us but also our opponents as they may rest some players ahead of their Cup Final.
Given their Cup Final priorities t is difficult to predict their line up for today so I'll focus more on their previous starting line up.
In the last couple of months Hibs have played with a 4-4-2. Against Aberdeen on Wednesday they lined up with;
- 33 Macy
- 6 McGinn, 24 McGregor, 4 Hanlon, 25 Doig
- 10 Boyle, 20 Hallberg, 13 Gogic, 36 Irvine
- 15 Nisbet and 9 Doidge
With Newell and Porteous dropping to the bench to allow McGregor and Hallberg to come in. Magennis, Stevenson and Murphy all came on as subs versus Aberdeen.
With our away draws to Aberdeen (twice), Hibs (once), Livingston (once) and our two defeats away to Rangers we can't go into a game away from home with any great confidence. Our two away wins against St Johnstone being our only victories away against a top 6 side this season.
Hibs have cemented 3rd place and their counter attacking style will be suited against us as we will always take the game to the opponent despite not having the effectiveness to turn chances into goals. Hibs are also usually better away from home than at home but given the fact we will take the game to them it can be treated like an away match for them.
Hibs NP xG per game this season has been 1.51 and their total NP xG for the season for counter attacks is 12.51 which is the highest in the SPFL. That 12.51 is 27% of their NP xG highlighting a preference for this style of chance creation. 27% again is the highest in the SPFL (with 23% the 2nd highest). Thanks to @modernfitba for the stats.
Martin Boyle is their main danger man and he has 30 shots on target and 12 goals scored this year. He has made 189 crosses this year (33 more than Celtic's most crossing player David Turnbull).
We have been linked with Nisbet and Doig and I would be happy to sign both but I'd make Martin Boyle a priority before them. Maybe the Wyscout guys (@bhoysanalytics, @alan_morrison67 and @jucojames) could do a profile on him.
As you can see from the above Hibs have finished the season strongly.
Prediction. Hibs to win 2-1 as we are just not capable to perform on the biggest testing games this year. Our only chance will be against a very weakened Hibs selection.
In our 3 games against Hibs this season NP xG has been 4.28 v 3.85 in Hibs favour. We've had an average of 64% possesion
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