Austria qualified after securing 2nd place in their group and came through the group games with a total xG of 3.3 (15th out of 24). They did have a Post Shot xG of 4 and the differential of +0.7 was joint 3rd best suggesting good finishing from their chances.
However 1.2 of this positive variance came in the one game against North Macedonia.
Italy had an xG of 5.4 (5th) and scored 7 goals (jt 2nd) however the they were solid at the back conceding 0 goals and xGA was the lowest out of 24 teams at just 1. The Post Shot xGA was even lower again at 0.8.
Probable line ups;
- Di Lorenzo, Bonucci, Chiellini and Spinazoola
- Barella, Jorginho and Locatelli
- Berardi, Immobile and Insigne
- Dragovic, Alaba and Hinteregger
- Lainer, Laimer, Sabitzer and Ulmer
- Baunmgartner and Kalajdzic
I expect Italy to win this keeping a clean sheet and doing so by leading before halftime which is 5/2. However best value bet would leave out the first half part. CelticTrendsTip is Italy to win and both teams not to score in the game at 13/10.
Celtic Trends 🍀📈⚽️