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Kilmarnock v Celtic (Match Preview)



Probabilities for the match are Celtic 77%, Kilmarnock 7% and 16% for the draw.


Aberdeen v Kilmarnock

In their last league game against Aberdeen Kilmarnock lost 2-0 and the xG was 2.20 to 1.08 in Aberdeen’s favour.


Kilmarnock lined up in a 3-5-1-1 formation;

  • 20 Sam Walker

  • 2 Lewis Mayo, 19 Joe Wright and 3 Jeriel Dorsett

  • 11 Danny Armstrong, 34 David Watson, 17 Brad Lyons, 22 Liam Donnelly and 24 Luke Chambers

  • 10 Jordan Jones

  • 26 Christian Doidge

5 of the starting line up Watson, Chambers, Lyons, Jones and Doidge haven’t started in the 3 games against Celtic so far this season.


Forward Bobby Wales, left midfielder Fraser Murray, forward Scott Robinson and right back Ryan Alebiosu came on as subs.


Zachary Hemming, Ash Taylor, Alan Power, Blair Alston and Kerr McInroy were unused subs.


Kilmarnock v Celtic

In the corresponding fixture in August Celtic won 5-0 with 2.7 xPts and 2.88 xG v 0.69 xG for Kilmarnock. Celtic leading from the 7th minute.


Kyogo, Jota, Jenz, Starfelt and Giakoumakis scored Celtic’s goals from xG totals of 0.63, 0.27, 0.19, 0.82 and 0.17.


Celtic v Kilmarnock

In the reverse fixture in January Celtic won 2-0 with 2.94 xPts and 3.25 xG v 0.08 xG for Kilmarnock. Celtic leading from 45 minutes.


Jota scored one from a total xG of 0.94 and the other goal was an own goal from Ash Taylor.


Celtic v Kilmarnock (Hampden)

In the most recent fixture between the teams (again in January) in the League Cup Semi Final Celtic won 2-0 with 1.65 xG v 2.12 xG for Kilmarnock. Celtic leading from 18 minutes.


Kilmarnock having a 0.47 positive xGD in this game which is the highest non penalty xGD any team in Scotland have had against Celtic this season.


Maeda and Giakoumakis scored Celtic’s two goals and their xG totals were 0.27 and 0.72.


Kilmarnock Players

Doidge is their best player for xG per 90 on 0.23 which is 34th in the SPFL and he has 0.11 actual goals per 90. Fraser Murray is their best player for xA per 90 at 0.17 which is 29th in the league. He doesn’t have any assists this season so far.


Expected line up;

  • Goalkeeper Walker signed in July 2021 from Reading

  • Right centre back Mayo is on loan from Rangers

  • Centre back Wright has scored 5 goals this season from 38 appearances

  • Left centre back Dorsett is on loan from Reading

  • Right wing back Armstrong has scored 12 goals from 64 appearances

  • 18 year old midfielder Watson has had 4 appearances for Kilmarnock

  • Central midfielder Lyons signed from Blackburn in 2021

  • Midfielder Donnelly scored 13 for Motherwell in his 71 games for them

  • 18 year old feft wing back Chambers is on loan from Liverpool

  • Ex-Rangers forward Jones is on loan from Wigan

  • Forward Doidge is on loan from Hibs where he had 37 goals for them


Prediction

In my match prediction in August I predicted Celtic would score 5 goals and I am confident Celtic will do so again in this game.


Celtic scored 5 goals in 4 away matches in the Invincible season and Celtic can equal that this weekend.


My prediction Kilmarnock 0 Celtic 5 with 3 from Kyogo, 1 from Jota and 1 from O’Riley.

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