Preview (Celtic v Motherwell)


Motherwell are 5th in the SPFL with 25pts and just goal difference away from fourth place.


Below is a graph on 6 game rolling average of NP xG and NP xGA including last season and this season so far for Motherwell.


The trend lines show a slight increase in NP xG and a slight decrease in NP xGA but nothing to right home about.


Their game against St Mirren seven games ago so their NP xG at the lowest (over last season and this season) at just 0.68 which resulted in an NP xGD minus of 0.76. (-0.85 the game after versus Rangers). However their NP xG has been on an upward climb recently.


Their NP xG average for this season is 1.14 and their NP xGA is 1.38. 0.47 (41%) of their NP xG is from set play and 0.38 (28%) of their NP xGA is from set play.


Motherwell are averaging a goal difference positive variance of 0.75 per game when Kyle Woolery is playing compared to when he is not playing. It is a negative variance of 1.13 per game when Stephen O'Donnell is playing.


Rickie Lamie has the most points per game at 1.85


Tony Watt has the best average rating at 7.21.


In the first 11 games of the season 7 of them Motherwell's opponents had a better NP xG than them and on 4 occasions it was more than 1 of a difference.


After 11 games their NP xG was 4th best at 1.15 per game but their Post Shot NP xG 1.31 was 3rd best and probably reflects the quality of player they have up front. After 11 games their Set Play NP xG was 0.6 and this represented 52% of their NP xG total. They were 1st on both these measures.


Their NP xG per shot of 0.121 was 2nd only to Celtic. 41% of shots on target is probably reflected in their Post Shot NP xG but shots on target doesn't always tell this story. With shots on target % best in league, NP xG per shot 2nd best in the league and Post Shot NP xG 2nd best in the league you can see what the main contributor is to their league position of 5th. Include in that their Set Play contribution to NP xG.


Their NP xGA per shot is also good at only 0.088 for the first 11 games and this was 3rd best in the league.


After 11 games they were averaging 193 passes per game with a 66% accuracy with 22% of their passes being long balls. They are 2nd lowest for passes per game and they are 2nd highest for long balls per game.



Match probabilities are;

- Celtic 80%

- Motherwell 5%

- a draw 15%



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Tony@CelticTrends.com

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