Preview (Hibernian v Celtic)


Hibs have played 16 games this season winning 8 (2 of which were Europa Conference League qualifiers and 1 was a League Cup game), whilst drawing 4 and losing 4. 3 of their 4 defeats have come in their last 3 games.


Their average player positions for their last two league games are below.

They have changed formations week on week and have played 3-4-3, 4-2-3-1, 3-5-2 and 3-4-1-2 in recent weeks. It's reported as a 3-4-3 versus Aberdeen but you can see from average positions it still looks more like a 4 at the back.

- In goals is Matt Macey (1) - Right back is Paul McGinn (6) although it could be argued he was right centre back - Right centre back against Aberdeen was Darren McGregor (24) but he got sent off and will be suspended.

- Nathan Wood (12) played centre half against Dundee Utd and Ryan Porteous (5) was suspended. - Left centre back is Paul Hanlon (4)

- Left back is Lewis Stevenson (16) while Josh Doig (3) played left back versus Dundee Utd.

- In central midfield is Jake Doyle-Hayes (22) and

- Joe Newell (11) with Doyle-Hayes playing more deeper sitting in front of the centre halfs.

- Alex Gogic (13) is a central midfielder but the only action he has seen in the last 4 games was a sub appearance versus Rangers.


- Right midfield is Chris Cadden (27) but he actually played right back against Dundee Utd.

- Central attacking midfield is Martin Boyle (10) with Scott Allan (23) playing there against Dundee Utd and Martin Boyle moving to right midfield. Although Boyle covered right across the line when he was right it goes very wide right as you can see by his touch match for the Aberdeeen game below.

- Left midfield is Jamie Gullan (19) with Jamie Murphy (18) playing there versus Dundee Utd.

- Drey Wright (8) is a left midfielder and he came on as a sub versus Aberdeen.

- Another attacking midfielder is Kyle Magennis (7) but he hasn't had much action recently.


- Centre forward is Kevin Nisbet (15)

- James Scott (25) is a forward and he came on as a sub versus Dundee Utd.


Martin Boyle touch map versus Aberdeen;

Against Aberdeen they had 42% of attacks from the left, 18% from the centre and 41% from the right and against Livingston it was 39%, 17% and 44%. Most of their attacks coming from wide areas.


Against Aberdeen Paul McGinn was top rated with 6.6 and 6.94 and against Dundee Utd the top rated players were Paul Hanlon with 6.8 and 6.57 and Jamie Murphy with 6.83 and 6.3.

Below is a graph for Hibernian's NP xG and NP xGA on a 6 game rolling average from the start of last season. Their current 6 game average for NP xG of 0.69 is their lowest but you can see from the graph they are a team that goes through many peaks and troughs. It is also worth noting their current NP xGA average of 0.75 which is the third lowest on the graph.

Match probabilities are; - Celtic 60% - Hibernian 17% - a draw 23%

Given the more controlled way we are playing and the trending of Hibernian's xG and xGA I'm predicting a 1-0 win for Celtic.

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