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RB Leipzig v Celtic (Match Preview)

Probabilities for the match are Leipzig 61%, Celtic 16% and 23% for the draw.

Out of Leipzig's most played 11 players last season Nordi Mukiele has left for PSG and Angelino is on loan at Spurs.

Make no mistake Leipzig are a very good side. Last season in the Champions League they drew with PSG and beat Man City and beat Bruges 5-0 away from home.

They did lose 4-1 at home to Shakhtar at the start of this season’s Champions League campaign however that result & scoreline did not reflect the game as Shaktar scored 4 goals from 5 shots and they only had 3 shots in the box.

Shaktar’s first goal was from a goalkeeping mistake 30 yards out and their second goal had a big deflection.

Despite the result not reflecting the game and expected goals (Leipzig had 1.41 xG to Shakhtar’s 0.95) Leipzig sacked their head coach and replaced him with ex Borusia Dortmund and Munchengladbach coach Marco Rose.

Against Real Madrid away they kept it at 0-0 till 80 mins with Real Madrid ending up 2-0 winners. xG was 0.93 v 0.69 in Madrid’s favour.

In the Bundesliga Leipzig won 4-0 at home to Bochum on Saturday.

They are currently 27th in the ELO ratings with Celtic 80th. Versus Real Madrid they lined up with the following;

  • In goals was Hungarian Peter Gulacsi (1). He has a 63% save percentage in the Bundesliga and has conceded 0.6 goals less than expected.

  • Right back was French 22 year old Mohamed Simakan (2)

  • Right centre back was Hungarian Willi Orban (4). He is 6th in the Bundesliga for accurate passes per 90 at 66.4.

  • Left centre back was Abdou Diallo (37) who is on loan from PSG

  • Left back was David Raum (22)

  • Right sided defensive midfielder was Amadou Haidara (8) from Mali. He has 0.56 xG per 90 in the Bundesliga.

  • Left sided defensive midfielder was Austrian Xaver Schlager (24)

  • 21 year old Hungarian wide forward Dominik Szoboszlai (17)

  • Swedish attacking midfielder Emil Forsberg (10). He has 1.9 successful tackles per 90 in the Bundesliga.

  • French wide forward Christopher Nkunku (18). He is 6th in the Bundesliga for xG per 90 with 0.65.

  • Up front was ex-Chelsea player Timo Werner (11). He has 0.64 xG per 90 in the Bundesliga.

Their average position map below.

They had three players injured, centre back Lukas Klostermann (16), central midfielder Konrad Laimer (27) and Spanish attacking midfielder Daniel Olmo (7).

Subs used during the game were right back Benjamin Henrichs (39), Slovenian midfielder Kevin Kampl (44), Danish forward Yussuf Poulsen (9) and Portugese forward Andre Silva (19).

Unused subs were goalkeeper Janis Blaswich (21), left back Marcel Halstenberg (23), 20 year old Croatian central defender Josko Gvardiol (32) and 19 year old Spanish midfielder Hugo Novoa (38). Gvardiol is top in the Bundesliga for accurate passes per 90 at 79.4 and he also averages 5.7 accurate long balls per 90. Novoa is 4th in the Bundesliga on dribbles per 90 with 3.1.

Other players that have been in the squad this year have been 18 year old goalkeeper Jonas Nickisch (34), 18 year old defender Sanoussy Ba (25) and Norwegian forward Alexander Sorloth (35).

In their last league game against Bochum Gvardiol (32), Halstenberg (23), Kampl (44) and Silva (19) came in for Diallo, Raum, Haidara and Forsberg.

Their average positions map versus Bochum below.

Against Real Madrid Szoboszlai had the most pressures at 37 (with 11 being successful) and next best was Schlager with 20, Forsberg with 19, Raum with 18 and Werner with 16. Against Shakhtar Nkunku had the most with 17 (with 7 successful).

For comparison the most for Celtic versus Madrid was O’Riley with 23 (but only 2 successful) and Kyogo had 20 versus Shakhtar (with only 3 successful).

Looking at pressures overall for the teams Celtic had 41% of their pressures against Madrid in the final third while Leipzig had 46% of their pressures against Madrid in the middle third.

The below looks at comparisons between Celtic’s and Leipzig’s performances against Shakhtar and Real Madrid.

For context it is worth remembering that Celtic were at home to Real Madrid and Leipzig were away to them and vice versa for the Shakhtar games.

Leipzig are currently 11th in the Bundesliga with 11 points but they are a better side than that and with a new manager they will improve soon. Hopefully that is not too quickly and they don’t start improving till after the double header against Celtic.

This is a really tough game for Celtic and I don’t like the way many Celtic supporters are expecting 4 points from this double header. Bookmakers have the probabilities at 61% Leipzig and 16% Celtic and they have that calculation for a reason.

I think Leipzig could win this game by a couple of goals and I’m going to unfortunately predict a 3-1 win for Leipzig with Maeda scoring for Celtic.

Celtic Trends 🍀📈⚽️

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