Following on from my Part 1 Review of the SPFL season so far (https://www.celtictrends.com/post/spfl-pre-split-review-part-1) below is Part 2.
In Part 1 I looked at a league table of 24 teams separating all teams into a Home and Away version.
At the top are Rangers Home and Rangers Away and they take 1st and 2nd in this table as they did in the pts per game table in Part 1.
Celtic Away are then 3rd (Celtic Away are 4th for pts per game) with an NP xG differential of 1.027 per game. This is due to having an NP xG of 1.92 which is better even than Rangers Away.
For clarification NP xG is a measure to determine performance outwith wins & goals to more accurately measure performance especially when used over a period of games. xG is Expected Goals and is measured for each shot at goal and it takes into consideration the position on the pitch where the shot was taken and other variables such as was it a shot or header and from a cross or pass etc etc. There are a few different producers of xG and the one I'm using is courtesy of @ModernFitba. NP xG is Non Penalty xG (ie taking out Penalties from xG). NP xGA is Expected Goals conceded to the opposition.
At the bottom of the table are Hamilton Home with a NP xG differential of minus 1.11 due to the worst NP xGA of 1.96. (Hamilton Home are 23rd for pts per game). 24th for pts per game are Kilmarnock but for NP xG differential they are 15th with a minus of 0.31.
Other teams that have a big difference between their pts per game position and their NP xG differential are;
- Aberdeen Away are 16th for pts per game and 8th for NP xG differential
- St Johnstone Away are 12th for pts per game and 6th for NP xG differential
- St Johnstone Home are 13th for pts per game and 7th for NP xG differential
So maybe the above 3 are performing better than the results have given them
- St Mirren Home are 10th for pts per game and 19th for NP xG differential
- Dundee Utd Home are 21st for pts per game and 9th for NP xG differential
And maybe the above 2 are performing worse than the results have given them
Livingston Away are 9th for NP xG differential but are actually 2nd for NP xGA at 0.765
Those with higher NP xG than actual goals are either unlucky in goalscoring or possibly just poor at finishing. It suggests they should be expected to get more goals than they are getting because of their creative play. And it's vice versa for those with lower NP xG than actual goals and similarly with NP xGA.
Those outperforming or underperforming their NP xG are;
- Rangers Home are scoring 2.94 goals per game versus a NP xG of 2
- Celtic Away are scoring 2.19 goals per game versus a NP xG of 1.92
- Livingston Away are scoring 1.31 goals per game versus a NP xG of 1.04
The above 3 are either lucky or have been good at finishing (whichever way you see it)
- St Johnstone Home are scoring 0.5 goals per game versus a NP xG of 1.12
- Aberdeen Away are scoring 0.63 goals per game versus a NP xG of 1.2
The above 2 are either unlucky or have been profligate in finishing
In regards to NP xGA;
- St Mirren Away have a NP xGA of 1.59 but are only conceding 1.06 goals per game
- Dundee Utd Home have a NP xGA of 1.57 but are only conceding 1.18 goals per game
The above 2 are either lucky or have been good at blocking or reducing the chances on their opponents scoring
- St Johnstone Away have a NP xGA of 0.93 but are conceding 1.59 goals per game
- Livingston Away have a NP xGA of 0.77 but are conceding 1.31 goals per game
The above 2 are either unlucky or have been letting their opponents score to easily from the chances they have created.
In regards of Trending;
- Rangers Home who have a NP xG of 2 have had a NP xG of only 1.365 for their last 4 home games
- Hamilton Home who have a NP xG of only 0.84 have had 1.28 for their last 3 home games
- Hamilton Away who have a NP xG of only 0.84 have had 1.09 for their last 5 away games
- Kilmarnock Home who have a NP xG of 1.22 have had 1.59 for their last 3 home games
Hamilton improving on both Home and Away NP xG in recent games. Below is a graph for Hamilton's combined Home and Away NP xG for the season on a 6 game rolling basis. Black line is Hamilton and red line is their opponents.
Part 3 of this SPFL Pre-Split preview will look at passing accuracy, possession and shots.
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