Squad Deployment

This summer has been a frustrating one for Celtic supporters with a replacement for Kyogo still yet to materialise and now a replacement needed for Kuhn too. That's before you even start to think about upgrading the squad to compete in the Champions League.

The questions I ask myself are - how many players do we actually need in a squad and where are the gaps in the current squad.

Celtic are a club that don't have the luxury of having a squad of top players with high paid back up players etc and success has to come from a strong 11 (or 16 if you include substitutes) more than a squad of 25. Although those squad players that fill up the squad still need to be able to come in and cover, when needed, at that level.

In the 2024/2025 Champions League campaign 98.2% of the starts came from the most used 16 played players. The most played 11 players were Schmeichel, Johnston, Taylor, Carter-Vickers, Trusty, McGregor, Engels, Hatate, Kuhn, Kyogo and Maeda. The 5 next most used players were Scales, Idah, Bernardo, Valle and Yang. 88.2% of the starts from the 11 and 10% from the next 5.

The 98.2% for the most used 16 players was the 3rd highest of all the 36 teams in the group stages. PSG at 98.4% and Brugge at 100% were the only two teams higher than this. Initially I thought the 98.2% meant Celtic didn't have enough squad depth but maybe playing the best players and being more consistent with team selection helped. PSG have been praised for resting their best players during the league campaign so they could play them in the Champions League and that is reflected in their 98.4% number. For PSG it was 86% for top 11 in Champions League and 63% for those same players in their domestic league campaign. So only 63% of their starts in the league came from those most played 11 players in their Champions League campaign. Brugge's 11 were 73% for the league campaign while Celtic's were 71%.

Celtic's 88.2% for the top 11 was 2nd highest only behind Brugge at 92%.

Looking at substitutes used Celtic had an average of 83 minutes used for subs in the Champions League and that was 15% less than the 99 minutes used for the domestic campaign. (Extra time games have been excluded from these numbers). It was actually 25% less in 2023/2024 with only 61 minutes used versus 81 in the league.

Looking at the squad needs over the season (including Champions League games) the split over each position was as follows;

• In goals Schmeichel started 86% of the games with Sinisalo starting 14%. Schmeichel starting 12% less than the previous season.

• At right back Johnston played 82% while Ralston played the other 18%.

• Left back was a bit mixed with Taylor 65%, Valle 18% and Schlupp 17%. Scales played left back for 1% of the minutes but never started at left back.

• Carter-Vickers played 75% of the minutes with Trusty playing 18% of the minutes available at right centre back. Welsh, Nawrocki and Murray played the remaining 7%.

• Trusty was the second most played centre back as he played 46% of the left centre back minutes as well as the 18% above at right centre back. However the most played minutes at left centre back were 51% and that was by Scales. Nawrocki played the remaining 3%. Scales had a big drop from the previous season where he had played 88%. So the majority of the minutes (190%) being covered by Carter-Vickers, Trusty and Scales. The year before the third highest was Welsh on 14%.

• McGregor started an unbelievable 93% of the games, up from the 88% the season before with the season before having 78% in the no.6 position and 10% further forward. Bernardo 5% and Engels 2% picked up the remainder last season in the no.6 role. McGregor minutes aided by the retirement from international football.

• The left sided no.8 role was taken up by Hatate for 75% of the starts, Bernardo 16% and Engels 9%.

• The right sided no.8 role (and the more attacking one) had Engels at 58%, McCowan 25%, Bernardo 12% and O'Riley (at the start of the season) at 5%. That took Engels to 69% in total. So in midfield in total McGregor 93%, Hatate 75%, Engels 69%, Bernardo 33%, McCowan 25% and O'Riley 5%. Only 5 midfielders used across the season.

• Right wing was Kuhn 72%, Forrest 12%, Yang 11%, Kyogo 4% and Maeda 2%.

• Left wing was Maeda 65%, Jota 16%, Yang 9%, Forrest 7% and Palma 4%. (I couldn't believe Palma was actually 40% the year before). This meant that Celtic used Kuhn 72%, Maeda 67%, Yang 20%, Forrest 19%, Jota 16%, Palma 4% and Kyogo 4% across the season. McCowan and Johnston also had minutes there without starting so 9 different wingers over the season.

• For striker it was Idah 44%, Kyogo 39%, Maeda 16% and Kenny 2%.

For context re injuries etc there were 47 missing players from the starting 11's over the season with the most being Carter-Vickers who was unavailable for selection 12 times. The year before it was 92 if you include Abada as a planned starter with Hatate at 25 the most missed player.

On any given matchday I would say you need your 11 outfield players and then another two wingers as subs, a striker, an attacking midfielder and the final sub to be used in one of the remaining positions. The other five positions on the bench most likely needing to be a goalkeeper, right back, left back, centre back and midfielder.

Topping up a squad to 25 players (ignoring the national trained and club trained restrictions for now) I would suggest also needed in case of injuries is another goalkeeper, another centre back, another midfielder, another striker and another two wingers given both winger subs are usually used.

Obviously the more that players can play in different positions the better that is.

So looking at the current squad there is;

• Schmeichel, Sinisalo and Doohan in goals

• Johnston and Ralston for right back with Donovan now needed due to Johnston's injury. I'd like to see Donovan getting more minutes but only when it's a full strength side so he can be coached and supported on his journey. IE So not starting at the weekend v Livingston as Ralston can do a job in those sort of games.

• Tierney and Inamura for left back although Rodgers has intimated Inamura not suitable for cover just yet.

• Carter-Vickers and Murray for right centre back

• Simpson-Pusey, Scales and Trusty for left centre back. I've put Simpson-Pusey as left centre back as although he is right footed he can play there and Rodgers' comments that Carter-Vickers and Murray are fighting for the right centre back position hints that Simpson-Pusey will be played left centre back.

• McGregor and Bernardo for no.6

• Hatate and Engels for left midfield

• Nygren and McCowan for right midfield

• Forrest and Yang for right wing

• Idah, Shin, Kenny and Osmand for striker

• Jota and Maeda for left wing although once Jota is fit Maeda may play more on the right wing (if he's not being played as striker).

So my observations looking at the above and looking at playing %'s over the last couple of seasons are;

• Goalkeepers sorted and right backs sorted (even allowing for Johnston's injury and Ralston's ceiling there are probably more pressing priorities).

• Left back potentially sorted if Inamura is trusted but depends on how much we can rely on Tierney's fitness which seems to be a worry. I don't mind signing project players but I'd expect that project player to be good enough as back up and if not I don't think we should be signing them.

• More than enough centre backs given only 3 used for the most part last season and 2 the year before. I would say 4 is the ideal number so players can get properly rested so at 5 one is too much. I hope that isn't Murray as I'd like him to stay and get more minutes this season and judging by Rodgers comments that seems likely. So who is being sold? Ideally for me Scales as he has a ceiling whereas Trusty can improve but my gut feeling is that Trusty may move on. Scales is acceptable as back up left centre back (I'm assuming to Simpson-Pusey) but I'd rather that be Trusty with Scales moved on but I can't see that. One to watch here. Many fans were against Simpson-Pusey coming in without an option to buy but I'm fine with that if he's going to be the player that some say he could be. If he helps the team this year and helps develop Murray when playing alongside him then it's no problem to me he's only here for the year. If it's to take Murray's place as back up to Carter-Vickers then I'm not in favour of that.

• McGregor at no.6 with Bernardo as back up and Engels too if needed is ample cover there although I would like to see Bernardo get more minutes there this season.

• Left midfield is Hatate with Engels as back up and Engels likely to be used as a sub in every game at the very least and that's with no injuries and no rotation or resting. Engels will get plenty of minutes this season.

• Nygren as the attacking no.8 looks to be a good profile fit for what is needed there and McCowan is useful as a sub or back up in the SPFL. Engels could play here in Europe if needed but I don't think it's an ideal role for him. He did ok there last season. Europe is probably too big a step up for McCowan. Due to McCowan's ceiling an injury to Nygren could leave Celtic exposed and another option there would be ideal. Maybe one of the reported winger targets could play there as an option as back up.

• With 6 midfielders this feels ideal but I somehow worry the club may see this as too much given only 5 were used last season. Hopefully Hatate is not away and I hope Engels isn't either. I'm not worried about the price tag and him being on the bench as he's still an investment who has loads of development ahead and even forgetting about his potential he has still contributed a lot so far and will continue to do so.

• If Jota was fit you would say Jota and Maeda for left wing is ideal although maybe a third needed for injury cover as two are used in each game.

• For right wing we have Forrest and Yang. Forrest can't be relied upon for Europe and even if he could it's unfair to put that burden on him. Yang just isn't good enough to be in Celtic's top four wingers in my opinion.

• So where does that leave Celtic for wingers (ignoring the fact Maeda could be utilised as striker and Jota is injured)? I would say that Jota left wing and Maeda right wing Celtic still need two wingers. One definitely for the right wing (as Maeda is better on the left) and another winger. So either two right wingers or one right winger and one left winger. Forrest is a very useful fifth winger and would still get many minutes in this ranking position, especially as he can play both wings. I would then either let Yang go or have him as sixth winger. We do need a sixth winger and Yang would be acceptable for that but ideally that would be a youth player. In this scenario (and given our current position) it is probably ok to get by with just signing two wingers and having Forrest and Yang upgraded to fourth choice and fifth choice to cover for Jota's injury. As it's a right winger mostly needed it is interesting that the reports are of Balikwisha coming in (who's a left winger, or no.10). Is Maeda being sold? Or moved to striker? To be honest I'd have preferred Breum to Balikwisha but Balikwisha does look a composed player (if not relatively fast) and he will be a welcome addition.

• In the striker position we need 3. Now I'd be happy enough with Idah, Maeda or even Vardy as 2nd choice striker if our first choice was Strelec or Munteanu but I wouldn't be happy with Idah and Maeda or Idah and Vardy as our main two. I think we really need to sign a striker more than anything. Leaving Shin, Kenny and Osmand fighting over third choice. I've just got a feeling we will sign a striker (disappointingly it'll probably not be Strelec or Munteanu) and we'll sell Idah and Shin (or even Maeda) will be back up and Kenny (if not out on loan) or Osmand as third choice. Idah could still come good but I'd be happy enough if we sold him this summer.

  
  

For me it was a good exercise to do the above to see actually what happens and also what the % of minutes looks like at the end of the season.

In an ideal world my preference would be for a top class striker, a top class right winger, another winger that can play across both wings (and also the attacking no.8 position) and keeping Trusty over Scales. If possible also a right back on loan and either a left back on loan or sign a good young left back with potential.

In reality I fear we could see no temporary right back, Trusty sold and Hatate sold (and hopefully not Maeda sold too). I think Jota's injury has reduced the chance of Maeda being sold.

I'll look to review this after the window closes and then again at the end of the season.