33 matches - SPFL xG stats


Below are some xG stats from the 33 rounds of matches in the SPFL this season so far.


xPts were mentioned in full here https://www.celtictrends.com/post/xpts-home-away-tables and Celtic were top for home at 2.76 points per game and top for away at 2.19 points per game.


Only Rangers at home (at 2.57) were better than Celtic away from home. Dundee were bottom for home (0.88) and bottom for away (0.78) with only St Johnstone away (0.81) splitting them.


For NP xG Celtic at home were the highest on 3.08 per game with Rangers at home next on 2.19 then it was Celtic away on 2.18 and Rangers away on 1.94. Best of the rest was Hearts at home on 1.38 per game. Lowest was St Johnstone at home on 0.66 and St Johnstone away on 0.52.


For NP xGA;

- Celtic at home were the best on 0.48 then it was Rangers at home 0.62, Aberdeen at home 0.68, Celtic away 0.70, Rangers away 0.84, Hearts at home 0.93. The highest was Hearts away 1.54, Ross County away 1.58, St Mirren away 1.80 and Dundee away 1.83


For NP xGD;

- Best by a distance were Celtic at home at +2.59 then it was Rangers at home on +1.56, Celtic away at +1.49, Rangers away +1.10, Aberdeen at home +0.61 and the worst were St Johnstone away -0.99 and Dundee away -1.03


The teams with the biggest positive variance on goals scored were Ross County +8.22 and Livingston +2.35 and with the biggest negative variance it was Celtic and 13.43 less goals than expected and Hibernian 9.18 less than expected.



In regards to goals conceded biggest positive variance was Dundee Utd on 12.71 and Hearts 8.43 less goals conceded than expected and the biggest negatives were Aberdeen (6.94 more goals conceded than expected) and Ross County +3.53.


For goals conceded versus Post Shot xGA (a good measure of goalkeeping performance) the best were St Johnstone (+5.08) and Hearts (+9.42 better off) and the worst were Motherwell (7.06) and Aberdeen (13.99 more goals conceded that Post Shot expected against).


Craig Gordon of Hearts coming out as the best keeper in the league on these measures. Gordon faced 150 shots on target and made 119 saves giving him a save percentage of 78.7%. Zander Clark of St Johnstone was next on 75%. Worst was Joe Lewis of Aberdeen on 61%.




For open play NP xG best was Celtic with 2.17 per game with Rangers quite a bit behind on 1.59 and Dundee Utd 3rd on 0.78. Lowest was St Johnstone on 0.39 which was well behind Dundee on 0.54. 83% of Celtic's xG was from open play which was the highest % and next after Celtic was Hearts with 80%. Rangers were joint 3rd with Hibs on 77%. Lowest was St Mirren on 63%. 37% of St Mirren's NP xG coming from set plays.


Celtic were top for first half NP xG with 1.41 per game well ahead of Rangers on 0.84. Rangers slightly ahead on second half with 1.22 versus Celtic's 1.21. Celtic's first half performances producing the overall differences versus Rangers this campaign. 54% of Celtic's NP xG coming in the first half and this again was top with Livingston next with 52%. Rangers were joint 3rd bottom on 41% and joint bottom were Hearts and St Mirren who only achieved 40% of their NP xG in the first half. Bottom for actual NP xG in the first half were St Johnstone on 0.26.


For xG per shot Celtic lead the way with 0.130 and Rangers were 2nd with 0.108. Lowest was St Johnstone on 0.07.



Celtic conceded the lowest open play NP xGA on 0.38 with Rangers next on 0.53 but Rangers did have the lowest set play NP xGA on 0.20 with Celtic next on 0.22. Best of the rest for open play xGA was Aberdeen on 0.60 and for set play was Dundee on 0.27. Worst performers were Dundee for open play xGA (1.37) and Ross County for set play xGA (0.41).


For first half NP xGA Celtic conceded the lowest on 0.27 with Rangers on 0.38 and Aberdeen on 0.41. Dundee conceded 0.85 in the first half of games.


For xGA per shot Ross County were the best on 0.089 followed by Livingston 0.090 and Celtic 0.091. Rangers were the 2nd worst on 0.1117 just ahead of the worst (Dundee) on 0.1119.


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