Celtic v RB Leipzig (Match Stats)
Celtic 0 xG 2.00 Leipzig 2 xG 1.69 (Werner 75 & Forsberg 84)
I previously highlighted how Celtic were leading xG trendlines in the Real Madrid game and Leipzig game up until 55 minutes then this deviated in the final 35 minutes. https://www.celtictrends.com/post/celtic-s-55-minutes-xg
In this game Celtic lead the way on xG most of the game with the exception of 15 to 25 minutes (very minimal) and 70 to 75 minutes.
Celtic dominating the chance creation in the first 30 minutes of the games.
As much as xG showing Celtic had the better of expected goals the main observation for performance was xG versus Post Shot xG which was;
Celtic xG 2.00, Post Shot xG 0.22
Leipzig xG 1.69, Post Shot xG 2.18
Celtic at 11% for Post Shot xG versus xG and Leipzig being at 129%.
Celtic conceded only 0.06 Set Play xG and that makes it only 0.14 in total for the 4 games which will be one of the best in the Champions League if not the best.
Celtic lined up with two changes from the weekend's game against St Johnstone with Jenz and Maeda coming in for Welsh and the injured Jota.
Juranovic, Carter-Vickers, Jenz and Taylor
O'Riley and Hatate
Abada, Haksabanovic and Maeda
It looks like a 2-4-4 formation which is very similar to Leipzig's although Leipzig's front 4 are far more narrower than Celtic's.
Forrest, Mooy, Turnbull, Giakoumakis and Bernabei came on for Abada, Hatate, Haksabanovic, Kyogo and Maeda.
I also highlighted before the game Celtic's pressing and that 41%/42% of the pressures were coming in the final third. https://www.celtictrends.com/post/celtic-champion-league-pressing
It was interesting to see in this game that figure dropped to 30% and that Celtic had 50 pressures in their defensive third. A tweak to the tactics or just the dynamics of the game?
If it was a tweak was it effective or not?
What was also interesting was that Leipzig had only 80 pressures in total which is well down on their average of 140. Again the majority of their pressures (50%) came in the middle third.
Top player for pressures was Matt O'Riley with 32 and top player for successful pressures was Maeda with 8 (from 26). 32 is the highest of any Celtic player in the Champions League this season with previous highest being Kyogo with 26. Forrest had the highest % at 60% (3 from 5).
In this game O'Riley had 40 accurate passes which was more than McGregor and Abildgaard combined (37) in the previous Leipzig game but less than McGregor's 59 and 65 in the first two games. However O'Riley did win 8 tackles in his new No.6 role.
James Forrest had 14 accurate passes which was more than double Abada's and in the last game Forrest had 6 accurate passes to Maeda's 8 even though Forrest had 15 minutes and Maeda 75 minutes.
Jota was a big miss for Celtic as he had contributed to 42% of Celtic's xG in the first three games through his shots and chance creation. He had 0.77 xG and 0.78 xA for the first three games.
Performance - Celtic had 11% Post Shot xG versus Leipzig's 129%
Style - Celtic had 103% more defensive third pressures.
Player watch - Forrest had 14 accurate passes, 0.31 xA and 60% successful pressures.
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