Probabilities for the match are Celtic 75%, Livingston 8% and 17% for the draw.
In their last game (v Rangers on Saturday) they lined up with the following;
Shamal George (1)
Nicky Devlin (2), Ayo Obileye (6), Jack Fitzwater (5) and Christian Montano (11)
Jason Holt (18), Scott Pittman (8) and Sean Kelly (24)
Stephen Kelly (17) and Andrew Shinnie (22)
Joel Nouble (19)
Joel Nouble is their top performer for xG but at only 0.19 per 90 he is 43rd in the league. His Post Shot xG is 2.7 for his 2.1 xG and he’s scored 3 goals.
Their left back Christian Montano is their best creator with an xA per 90 of 0.16. He is also 2nd best in the league for interceptions at 2.8 per 90.
Jack Fitzwater has the most blocks per 90 at 1.4. For clearances Fitzwater is 10th at 4.8 per 90 and Ayo Obileye is 14th with 4.4.
Kurtis Guthrie and James Penrice never started against Rangers (they did come on) but Martindale might start them against Celtic as they have the 7th and 8th worst records for fouls at 2.8 and 2.7 per 90.
As a team Livingston are 2nd bottom for passes per match at 184.8.
Their PPDA is 11.76 which is 2nd bottom of the league and many be surprised by that. Possessions won in the final 3rd is averaging 3.4 per 90 which is 9th.
Stats from the previous two visits to Livingston below.
Celtic getting 1.5 xPts for the first game and 2.6 for the second game.
Livingston had 1.18 xG from Set Plays in the second game and Celtic have been extremely good at limiting xG from Set Plays this year (best in the Champions League of 32 teams) so this could be a good measure to check for improvement on last year.
Comparing Livingston versus Hearts who Celtic faced last week Livingston (dark blue) are not as good as Hearts on all measure with the exception of one, that being interceptions. 0 on the graph is league average. Graph courtesy of premiershipstats.com
This will be a tight game for Celtic given the effort the team put in on Tuesday and it is always difficult playing after a Champions League game.
I’m predicting Livingston to take the lead and Celtic to come back and win 2-1 and not with a last minute winner but a bit more comfortably with a second goal around 55 minutes.
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