Match Preview produced for 20MinuteTims https://www.patreon.com/20MinuteTims/posts
Probabilities for the match are Celtic 43%, Rangers 31% and 26% for the draw.
In the history of the Glasgow Derby Rangers have only won once in 90 minutes when Celtic have had more than 700 fans in attendance. Once in 23 games (4%)
However when Celtic have had 700 or less fans in attendance they have only won twice. Twice in 11 games (18%). Rangers winning 64% of theses games.
This Saturday Celtic don’t even have any fans so this is the best chance yet that Rangers will have of beating Celtic. Also when you add in that the league has been officially won Rangers have everything to play for to gain some credibility back.
Celtic have a 56% win record against Rangers overall and that goes to a 74% win record when you take out games with no more than 700 Celtic fans in attendance. But with 700 or less it is only 18% so you can see the participation levels of fans makes a big difference to the outcome of this match.
This season though Celtic have won 4 of 5 meetings between the clubs with the other fixture (at Ibrox) being a draw. Celtic have been leading on average for 53 minutes of these games while Rangers have been leading for an average of 7 minutes. 30 minutes of these games have been where the teams have been drawing.
Celtic have also been winning the Michael Beale League as well (since December);
Celtic Played 19 Pts 53
Rangers Played 19 Pts 49
A win for Celtic this weekend puts Celtic 7 points clear in the Michael Beale league.
Celtic averaging 2.4 goals per game and 1.36 xG per game versus Rangers who are averaging 1 goal per game and 1.18 xG per game. Post Shot xG average per game is 1.57 for Celtic and 0.89 for Rangers.
Rangers are achieving more shots per game at 11.2 versus Celtic’s 10.6 however Celtic’s NP xG per shot is averaging 0.13 versus 0.09 for Rangers.
Celtic come out the blocks much stronger than Rangers and you can see that in possession in the first 15 minutes stats. Celtic are averaging 64% possession in the first 15 minutes with a high of 72% (January game). Also on that theme Celtic are averaging 0.7 first half xG while Rangers are averaging 0.36, nearly half of Celtic’s. Celtic delivering 52% of their xG in the first half while Rangers are delivering 31% of their xG in the first half.
Celtic’s PPDA has been lower than Rangers’ in every game this season so far and the five match average is 7.57 for Celtic and 10.6 for Rangers. Meaning Rangers are averaging only 7.57 passes before a Celtic defensive action while Celtic are being allowed to make 10.6 as a comparison.
Celtic 4 Rangers 0 September 2022 shot map below;
Celtic with 15 shots and 9 of them in the box. The most shots and box shots Celtic have had in derby games this season. Rangers having only 0.07 NP xG per shot which is the lowest of any team in a derby this season.
Rangers 2 Celtic 2 January 2023 shot map below;
Rangers with 15 shots and 12 in the box which is the most they have had in any derby game this season. Celtic only had 4 box shots and 2 shots on target which was their lowest for any derby game this season.
Rangers 1 Celtic 2 February 2023 shot maps below;
Rangers shot map;
Celtic shot map;
Celtic had 0.17 NP xG per shot which was the highest of any team in the derby this season while Rangers had only 1 shot on target.
Celtic 3 Rangers 2 April 2023 shot map below;
Rangers with only 8 shots which is their lowest in derby games this season. Celtic had 7 shots on target which was the highest of any team in derby games this season. 78% of shots on target was also the highest % of shots on target for derby games this season.
Rangers 0 Celtic 1 April 2023 shot maps below;
Rangers shot map;
Celtic shot map;
Celtic’s NP xG of 0.08 was their lowest of any derby game this season.
Top contributors for Non Penalty xG is this fixture this season are (with Post Shot xG in brackets);
Kyogo 2.08 (2.57)
Jota 1.54 (2.89)
Sakala 1.36 (0.93)
Morelos 1.12 (1.14)
Tavernier 0.71 (0.49)
Maeda 0.63 (0.56)
O’Riley 0.52 (0.5)
Tillman 0.52 (0.09)
Kent has the 4th highest Post Shot xG total at 1.27 from only 0.41 xG. Out of the above 8 players all of their figures (per 90) are lower than their season average (which is to be expected against their toughest opponent) with the exception of Jota. His season NP xG average for the league is 0.3 per 90 but against Rangers is 0.45.
This may suggest Jota is a big game player and capable of maintaining his game (or even upping his game) against more challenging opponents. Add in to the fact his Post Shot xG is 0.84 per 90 in these games. He also has scored 3 times in these games this season and once last season.
Jota’s xA per 90 drops from 0.33 overall to 0.21 in these games so Celtic are maybe not getting the full benefit of his creativity in these games?
Top contributors for xA are;
Barisic and Tavernier creating 69% of Rangers total while O’Riley, Taylor, Hatate and Maeda creating 68% of Celtic’s total.
Stats from all five games so far these season below.
My predictions for this game are for Celtic to receive the first card at 19/20 and Rangers to score a penalty at 9/2.
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