Probabilities for the match are Celtic 41%, Rangers 33% and 26% for the draw.
Below is a possession graph for each 5 minute period from the September match and you can see that Celtic didn’t dominate the possession despite being in total control of the game. Total possession was 45.1% for Celtic and Celtic had the most possession in only 6 of the 18 five minute segments. The most being between 5 to 10 minutes where Celtic had 77.5% possession.
The xG timeline of the match below.
Despite the score the xG was only 1.88 v 0.79 in Celtic’s favour with Post Shot xG 1.77 v 0.34. At half time it was actually closer at 1.18 to 0.63 with 63% of Celtic’s xG and 80% of Rangers xG coming in the first half. 7% of Celtic’s xG came from set plays whilst 29% of Rangers xG came from set plays.
O’Riley was the main contributor of chances for Celtic creating 0.19 xA with the next after that Juranovic and Abada on 0.04. Rangers chances all came from their full backs with Tavernier on 0.32 xA and Barisic on 0.34 xA.
Abada had 3 shots and 2 goals from an xG of 0.19, Jota had 2 shots and 1 goal from an xG of 0.18 and Turnbull had 1 shot and 1 goal from an xG of 0.34. Giakoumakis had 4 shots from 0.46 xG while Colak had 3 shots from 0.52 xG.
Carter-Vickers had the most passes for Celtic at 50 (at 92% accuracy) while Sands had the most for Rangers at 92 (at 90% accuracy).
Average player positions in that game are below.
Celtic with clear spaces between the lines and Rangers more trying to crowd the middle of the park.
Celtic’s average formation line was 48.7 with Rangers being 54.1 and trying to play that higher line to squeeze the game up. It was actually 55.5 for Rangers in the first half. Rangers had a PPDA of 7.9 versus Celtic’s 12.8 which would indicate more pressing however it was 8.7 Celtic and 9.4 Rangers in the first half.
Below is a comparison position by position on some key stats (for all league games this season);
Hart conceding 2.4 more goals than expected but that is better than McGregor who is conceding 3.1 more.
Tavernier has dropped to only 0.14 xA per 90 this season (from 0.33 last season) but Rangers still get a lot of successful attacking actions from their full backs.
Davies top for defensive duels won % but he does only have 3.87 defensive duels per 90 compared to Goldson’s 5.45.
Jack out in front on defensive duels won at 72.73%. He also has the most defensive duels per 90 at 5.98. McGregor has most passes to the final 1/3rd at 13.13 per 90.
Kent has been playing in the middle behind the striker and therefore the most similar player to O’Riley’s position. Beale may change this for the 2nd January and play Kent wide with a more defensive player (Arfield or Kamara) starting in the middle.
Sakala has been starting for Rangers recently and could continue there in his wide left role or may even be used up top. Jota is well ahead in xA per 90 at 0.43.
Kyogo not great with xA per 90 at 0.05 but he has an impressive 1.13 goals per 90.
A very tight game ahead with challenging encounters all over the pitch.
Celtic Trends 🍀📈⚽️